Article cited on Arctic actually concludes that change is too large to be natural fluctuation:
Said that National Academy of Sciences refuted foundation of hockey-stick graph. Though it decided that its analytical tools were flawed, it supported the basic finding of global warming. https://mathbench.umd.edu/modules/climate-change_hockey-stick/page07.htm
http://www.sciencebits.com/ice-ages says part man-made, part cyclical
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