Balls and Wheels: June 2020

Sunday, June 28, 2020

When I think of Guerrero these days, what comes to mind for me is not so much his Hall of Fame career, but that he is the most prominent member of one of the most prolific families in baseball. They're not quite on the level of the Bells or the Boones or the Alou/Rojas family in terms of accumulated Major League value, but they're definitely one to keep an eye on.

Vlad, of course, you know. And you probably know Vlad's brother Wilton (more on him later). And, Vlad's son, Vladimir Jr., is already making a name for himself after an excellent rookie season in 2019.

Branching out further on the Guerrero family tree, though, you discover that there were 3 other brothers that were either in organized baseball themselves and/or are connected to a new generation of Guerreros:

Eleazar Guerrero signed with the Dodgers but never reached the Majors. He has 2 sons currently playing - Gabriel, age 26, who debuted in the Majors with the Reds in 2018 and is currently an outfielder in the Toronto organization, and Josue, age 20, currently an outfielder in the White Sox organization.

Aurelia Guerrero didn't play organized ball, but he has had 2 sons in the Mets organization - second baseman Gregory, age21, and Jose age 24, a pitcher (although I don't believe Jose is currently affiliated with an organization).

The last brother is Julio Cesar Guerrero, who signed with Boston, and reached class A in 2001, but never advanced beyond that.

- Daniel Marks, June 26 2020

Friday, June 26, 2020

Pogo

https://comiconlinefree.com/pogo-by-walt-kelly-the-complete-syndicated-comic-strips/issue-TPB_5_(Part_4)/14

Evaluating general managers

Still thinking about this issue, several hours later. Basically, you're getting about 100 steps ahead of yourself. If you really wanted to do this, you would have to do it from the top down, not from the bottom up. In other words, START with the question of "How successful was the General Manager?"

In order to answer THAT question, you need to (a) look first at the success of the team, not the success of any trade, and (b) create a system in which you hold a GM responsible for 20% of the team's success in the first season following his first off-season, 40% responsible in the second season, 60% in the third season, 80% in the fourth season, and fully responsible beginning in his fifth season as GM, or something like that.

Having done that, you need to place the success in perspective relative to expectations. An 80-win season after a string of 90-win seasons is a bad season; an 80-win season after a string of 60-win seasons is a great season. An 80-win season on a $100 million budget is a great season; an 80-win season with a $300 million budget is a disaster and will get you fired. A World Series championship followed by a 70-win season is not the same as two straight 85-win seasons. You need to create a system to place his success in perspective.

Then, third stage, you need to define the GM's areas of responsibility--trading, drafting, developing talent, signing the right players at the right price, public relations, player relations, managing unexpected events, hiring the right manager and the right pitching coach, etc. And you need to have some theory as to how you would evaluate each of those areas of responsibility. These areas of responsibility change greatly over time. Casey Stengel could go to the Yankee front office and say "I don't want this guy around anymore", and he'd be gone in three days. It's not that way anymore.

Finally, after you've done those things, then you could turn your attention to trades or drafts or signings or whatever it is you need to study.

Bill james

Monday, June 22, 2020

1st Curveball?

https://idnc.library.illinois.edu/?a=d&d=NYC18600922.2.13&e=-------en-20--1--txt-txIN---------

" The result was chiefly owing to the very effective pitching of young Hannegan, of the Unions, who imparted such a twist to the balls he pitched, that it was almost impossible to hit them squarely and fairly into the field.."

New York Clipper, September 22 1860

From 1860 Beadle's Dime Base-Ball Player:

"The Pitcher, who can combine a high degree of speed with an even delivery, and at the same time can, at pleasure, impart a bias or twist to the ball, is the most effective player in that position." p.22

Sunday, June 21, 2020

Odd career transformation

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=furill001car

Never hit for power, majors or minors until age 27, when he hit 18 home runs and continued to hit 20 home runs a year for the rest of his career. Previous high in pro homers was 10, which he did in B ball. Had hit 4 dingers in 364 at bats the previous year at 26.