Still thinking about this issue, several hours later. Basically, you're getting about 100 steps ahead of yourself. If you really wanted to do this, you would have to do it from the top down, not from the bottom up. In other words, START with the question of "How successful was the General Manager?"
In order to answer THAT question, you need to (a) look first at the success of the team, not the success of any trade, and (b) create a system in which you hold a GM responsible for 20% of the team's success in the first season following his first off-season, 40% responsible in the second season, 60% in the third season, 80% in the fourth season, and fully responsible beginning in his fifth season as GM, or something like that.
Having done that, you need to place the success in perspective relative to expectations. An 80-win season after a string of 90-win seasons is a bad season; an 80-win season after a string of 60-win seasons is a great season. An 80-win season on a $100 million budget is a great season; an 80-win season with a $300 million budget is a disaster and will get you fired. A World Series championship followed by a 70-win season is not the same as two straight 85-win seasons. You need to create a system to place his success in perspective.
Then, third stage, you need to define the GM's areas of responsibility--trading, drafting, developing talent, signing the right players at the right price, public relations, player relations, managing unexpected events, hiring the right manager and the right pitching coach, etc. And you need to have some theory as to how you would evaluate each of those areas of responsibility. These areas of responsibility change greatly over time. Casey Stengel could go to the Yankee front office and say "I don't want this guy around anymore", and he'd be gone in three days. It's not that way anymore.
Finally, after you've done those things, then you could turn your attention to trades or drafts or signings or whatever it is you need to study.
Bill james
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